Russia has always been bold on the foreign policy front, but lately many seem to agree that the nation has shown unprecedented aggression ( when it comes to Russia, I think external public discourse is seldom nuanced).
Russia's lack of territorial integrity, through blatant disregard for national sovereignty has already been displayed through the Crimean intervention so why did Russia's involvement in Syria come as such a surprise?
Syria, for many years, has been Russia's only strong ally in the region. For a bit of background, in the 1960's, Syria had the largest communist party in the region as well as significant oil and gas reserves which Soviets could exploit to provide technological support to their energy ventures. This provided an opportunity for the two nations to work in tandem and build a strong foundation for subsequent interactions. Now, Putin is aiding Assad and supporting the Syrian army by conducting airstrikes targeting rebel groups ( some of which receive financial aid from the United States), changing the entire dynamic of the Middle East and provoking ripples of Cold War rhetoric from the West.
And a lot of people, seem to be perplexed as to why exactly Russia is intervening in the region. After all, Russia must have some ulterior motives and won't go to such great lengths to aid an ally. I think it may partly be because the state wants to re-establish itself as a hegemonic power against the United States and to divert attention from Ukraine, it's desire to test NATO's commitment to collective security by sending missiles into Syria, along with some geopolitical concerns. Perhaps the Russians oddly believe that by doing this their 15 million Muslims, many of whom are already quite isolated, will be better assimilated into society and less prone to radicalization but the reality is that this intervention is going to cause tension to intensify in the Caucasus region and I don't think fighting a proxy war with the Russians is a priority for Americans who are much more anxious about China's rise . One thing is concrete- Russia will continue to become more fragmented by the day. Surprisingly, in a recent poll conducted in Moscow, the majority of people surveyed backed Putin's decisions in the region. The state of the Russian economy has still not helped to erode domestic support for military ventures, so I wonder what will.
This serves as a perfect transition to examine Russia's economic woes. The decrease in oil prices and implementation of sanctions has hit the economy hard. The economy also is lacking investment and battling an inflation rate of 15% due to a lower exchange rate, and is going to contract by 4.2% this year. So Russia really needs to devise strategies to attract more investment and stimulate growth. I think labour market reform, improving domestic labor mobility and creating incentives for multinationals may not be the most robust solutions but are surely good places to start because Russia already has a large existing market that it can utilize and reap the benefits from.
Meanwhile, Russia's evolving political landscape is also taking a turn for the worse. The past year has evidently been a time of growing intolerance and the myriad attacks on journalists, members of the Russian opposition and basically anyone challenging Putin's reign proves this. So now as more and more secular ideals are being thrown out of the window, we are served with such a diluted dose of democracy that many fear the nation is headed towards complete authoritarian rule as long as it remains under Putin's loving watch.
- Nehmat
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